KXWCROUND

# Prediction Market Yield Curve Analysis: KXWCROUND The yield curve displays a dramatic downward slope across tournament rounds, with the Round of 16 (tau=114d) commanding substantially higher YES probabilities than later stages. Round of 16 probabilities cluster around 20-70%, with strong favorites like Spain (74%), France (73%), Argentina (70%), Brazil (69%), and England (65%) showing deep conviction. The Semifinals (tau=115d) represent the cheapest tenor, where YES probabilities collapse dramatically—Brazil drops from 69% to 44%, Spain from 74% to 49%, France from 73% to 42%, and Argentina from 70% to 41%. The Quarterfinals sit between these extremes with moderate compression, while the Finals (tau=115d) show the lowest probabilities across the board, with most countries trading at single-digit percentages and even favorites like Spain at only 36% and Argentina at 34%. This inverted structure reveals the market's fundamental view: the event (likely World Cup advancement) is expected to occur relatively soon at the Round of 16 stage, but the probability of progression through successive knockout rounds decays sharply. The market is pricing in realistic tournament attrition—many Round of 16 participants will be eliminated before reaching later stages. The near-flat tenor between Semifinals, Quarterfinals, and Finals (all at 115d) suggests these stages are temporally compressed in the tournament calendar, yet probabilities continue declining, indicating the market views each successive round as a genuine elimination hurdle. This structure reflects rational expectations about tournament mathematics: with 32 teams entering Round of 16, only 8 reach Quarterfinals, 4 reach Semifinals, and 2 reach Finals. The curve is pricing realistic advancement odds rather than predicting when