Will Argentina qualify for FIFA World Cup Final

The yield curve displays a pronounced inverted structure across the three distinct tenor buckets. At the 31-day tenor (Round of 16), YES probabilities range widely from 9% to 91%, with a volume-weighted median around 55%. The 32-day tenor markets—spanning Semifinals, Quarterfinals, and Finals—show systematically lower probabilities, with the Semifinals bucket exhibiting the cheapest YES prices overall, clustering between 1% and 75% but concentrated in the 3-23% range for most markets. The Finals bucket represents the deepest discount, with probabilities ranging from 1% to 19%, indicating the market prices progression through multiple rounds as increasingly unlikely. This inversion is stark: markets price later-stage advancement as substantially less probable than immediate Round of 16 success, despite the minimal one-day time difference between tenors. The inverted structure reveals the market's view that conditional advancement probabilities are steep. Rather than viewing the 31-day and 32-day markets as near-equivalent, traders are pricing in significant attrition between rounds. The curve implies that while many teams may be favored to win their Round of 16 matches, the compounding probability of successive victories creates a sharp discount for deeper tournament runs. High-volume markets like Mexico (47% Quarterfinal vs. 23% Semifinal) and the USA (51% Quarterfinal vs. 20% Semifinal) exemplify this pattern. The market is essentially saying that reaching the Finals is a rare outcome for most competitors, with only elite teams like France (89% Quarterfinal, 75% Semifinal) and Argentina (82% Quarterfinal, 63% Semifinal) maintaining elevated probabilities across multiple rounds.