Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals
Goal Diff Reg Time: Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP.
Price history
12¢ current
Contract brief
If Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals in the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Goal Diff Reg Time: Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Goal Diff Reg Time: France wins by more than 1.5 goals 19¢
Range
3¢-19¢
Family volume
$127K
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP2
Jul 13, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP
Closes
Jul 28, 2026
Family volume
$127K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals in the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 28, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP2
Event family
KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$127K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Goal Diff Reg Time: France wins by more than 1.5 goals 19¢
Current share
7%
Goal Diff Reg Time: France wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-FRA2
Goal Diff Reg Time: Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP2
Goal Diff Reg Time: France wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-FRA3
Goal Diff Reg Time: Spain wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUL14FRAESP-ESP3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.