State of the economy at the end of 2026
Overheating is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside State of the economy at the end of 2026.
Price history
35¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Overheating
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Soft landing 44¢
Range
3¢-44¢
Family volume
$97
Identifier
KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT
Jun 27, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$16
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · State of the economy at the end of 2026
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
Family volume
$97
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 13, 2027
Identifier
KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT
Event family
State of the economy at the end of 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$97
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Soft landing 44¢
Current share
16%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.