What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Sleepy Joe is priced at 69¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 71¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
Price history
69¢ current
+46¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump says Sleepy Joe as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Sleepy Joe
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-SLEE
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
71¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
71 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says Sleepy Joe as part of Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-SLEE
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during Great American State Fair - America is Back Rally.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Oil / Gas / Gasoline 94¢
Current share
5%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-OIL
Stock Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-STOC
Hottest
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-HOTT
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-DUMB
World Cup
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-WORL
Transgender
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TRAN
Reflecting / Pool
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-REFL
Sleepy Joe
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-SLEE
America First
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-AMER
Ballroom
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BALL
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-BARA
Mental Institution
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-MENT
Terminate / Terminated
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-TERM
Gulf of America
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-GULF
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-CRYP
Event does not qualify
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUN24-NQE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 69% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.