When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math
Before July is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before.
Price history
7¢ current
−36¢Contract brief
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before July
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Before 2027 73¢
Range
5¢-73¢
Family volume
$258
Identifier
KXFRONTIER-FRON-26JUL01
Jun 26, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$107
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$258
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXFRONTIER-FRON-26JUL01
Event family
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$258
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before 2027 73¢
Current share
42%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.