When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math
Before 2027 is priced at 85¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 78¢ bid, 84¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before.
Price history
85¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Before 2027 78¢
Range
4¢-78¢
Family volume
$709
Identifier
KXFRONTIER-FRON-27JAN01
Jun 27, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$18
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$709
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 84¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXFRONTIER-FRON-27JAN01
Event family
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$709
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before 2027 78¢
Current share
76%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.