When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math
Leader sits at 77% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Open Problems?: Before 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Open Problems?: Before Octob
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$692
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before 2027
KXFRONTIER-FRON-27JAN01
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before October
KXFRONTIER-FRON-26OCT01
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?: Before July
KXFRONTIER-FRON-26JUL01
Analysis
The 76% probability reflects market expectations that at least one AI system will solve a Frontier Math open problem by early 2027, based on recent progress in AI capabilities on mathematics benchmarks. The high probability is driven by accelerating improvements in large language models and specialized math AI systems, with several major AI labs actively competing on these challenges. Key near-term catalysts include AI model releases and published benchmark results over the next 2-3 months, which will clarify whether systems are approaching the threshold required to solve established unsolved problems. The gap between shorter-term expectations (55% for solving by July 2026) and longer-term probability suggests market participants view near-term solutions as less likely but increasingly probable within a 12-month window.
- ›Recent AI models have achieved unprecedented performance on standardized math benchmarks; progress trajectory will determine credibility of solving open problems
- ›Definition of 'solving' Frontier Math problems must be clarified—whether it means rigorous proof, significant progress, or algorithmic breakthrough affects feasibility assessment
- ›Competition among major AI labs (OpenAI, DeepSeek, Anthropic, others) is intensifying on mathematics capabilities, potentially accelerating development timelines
- ›Frontier Math problems represent genuinely unsolved mathematics; no AI has demonstrated capability to independently produce novel mathematical proofs at research level
- ›Market pricing shows substantial probability decline for July 2026 deadline (55%) versus longer timeframe, indicating skepticism about immediate near-term solutions
What moved the line
- Jun 22Open Problems?: Before 2027↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Open Problems?: Before October↓7pp59→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Open Problems?: Before October↑5pp57→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Open Problems?: Before 2027↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Open Problems?: Before October↑4pp51→55¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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