What is the current probability for "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 28¢ (28% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1293.5% and 12.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Beast Industries IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Beast Industries IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that When will Beast Industries IPO?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable.

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28¢

Bid/Ask 9/18¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $14·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-27FEB01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields—1132% for Yes versus 14% for No—suggest either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in very low conviction for an IPO within the 290-day window. The 9¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicate thin order books and heightened execution risk, so any position would be difficult to exit at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

If Beast Industries confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1293.5%

IY (No) 12.7%

Adj IY 647%

CRI 10

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1293.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	647%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:32:11 PM

Observability highEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →