Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $5,243 open interest, and the 1,622.8% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or structural distortion rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $5,243 open interest, and the 1,622.8% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or structural distortion rather than genuine opportunity. The 17¢ price has declined 15% over seven days (from 10¢ to 8¢), suggesting weakening conviction in Nurmagomedov holding the title through year-end 2026, though the wide 5¢ spread and modest cliff risk index of 12 indicate moderate uncertainty about the resolution criteria. With 259 days to expiration, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable pricing, making the extreme yield metrics unreliable for actual trading decisions.
Also on polymarket at 18¢(Δ -1¢)
Resolution rules
If Umar Nurmagomedov is the UFC Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUFCBANTAMWEIGHTTITLE-26-UNUR yes 100