Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This market on Alexi Giannoulias winning the 2027 Chicago mayoral race shows extremely thin liquidity with just $10.05 in 24-hour volume against $2,919 open interest, creating execution risk for larger positions.
Analysis
This market on Alexi Giannoulias winning the 2027 Chicago mayoral race shows extremely thin liquidity with just $10.05 in 24-hour volume against $2,919 open interest, creating execution risk for larger positions. The 48¢ price implies near coin-flip odds, but the asymmetric implied yields (74.4% Yes vs 39.0% No) and elevated realized volatility of 152% suggest significant uncertainty about Giannoulias's viability as a candidate, with the Vol Ratio of 1.79 indicating option markets are pricing in outsized tail risk. With 678 days to expiration and minimal price movement over the past week, this appears to be a speculative position market rather than an information-efficient price discovery venue.
Resolution rules
If Alexi Giannoulias wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCHICAGOMAYOR-27-AGIA yes 100