Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Who will win Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,679 open interest, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,679 open interest, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—31.8% for Yes versus 131.0% for No—suggest the market is significantly underpricing tail risk on the No outcome, likely due to illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With 566 days until expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded contract, warranting caution on price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Nick Begich III wins the Alaska U.S. House of Representatives election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALASKAHOUSE-26-NBEG yes 100