Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing February 23, 2028. This market on Alexi Giannoulias's mayoral prospects shows moderate liquidity ($6,658.84 open interest) with extremely elevated realized volatility at 263% and a vol ratio of 3.38, suggesting significant price swings relative to typical prediction markets.
Analysis
This market on Alexi Giannoulias's mayoral prospects shows moderate liquidity ($6,658.84 open interest) with extremely elevated realized volatility at 263% and a vol ratio of 3.38, suggesting significant price swings relative to typical prediction markets. The 52¢ price implies roughly even odds, though the No side offers a slightly higher risk-adjusted yield at 56% versus 51.8% for Yes, indicating modest market skepticism about Giannoulias's chances despite the near-even pricing. With 678 days until the February 2028 close and a low cliff risk index, the market has ample time for information arrival, though the 24-hour volume of just $148.84 indicates thin trading depth that could amplify future price movements.
Resolution rules
If Alexi Giannoulias wins Chicago Mayoral Election in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMAYORCHI-27-AGIA yes 100