Republican party in the Arizona State House
Republican party is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 48¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Who will win the Arizona State House.
Price history
53¢ current
+48¢Contract brief
If the Republican party wins the Arizona State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Republican party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Republican party 48¢
Range
45¢-48¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXSTATELEG-AZHOUSE26-R
Jun 21, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
48¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$205
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Who will win the Arizona State House
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
48 / 55¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Republican party wins the Arizona State House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXSTATELEG-AZHOUSE26-R
Event family
Who will win the Arizona State House.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 48¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.