Who will win the Michigan State House
Leader sits at 92% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Republican party
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Republican party
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$8
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
495 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win
Who will win the Georgia State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-GASEN26-R
Who will win the Florida Senate?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-FLSENA26-D
Who will win the Iowa State House?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-IAHOUSE26-R
Who will win the Iowa State House?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-IAHOUSE26-D
Who will win the Georgia State Senate?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-GASEN26-D
Who will win the Georgia State House?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-GAHOUSE26-R
Who will win the Georgia State House?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-GAHOUSE26-D
Who will win the Florida Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-FLSENA26-R
Who will win the Florida House of Representatives?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-FLHOUS26-R
Who will win the Florida House of Representatives?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-FLHOUS26-D
Who will win the Arizona State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-AZSEN26-R
Who will win the Arizona State Senate?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-AZSEN26-D
Who will win the Arizona State House?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-AZHOUSE26-R
Who will win the Arizona State House?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-AZHOUSE26-D
Who will win the Alaska State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-AKSEN26-R
Who will win the Alaska State Senate?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-AKSEN26-D
Who will win the Alaska State House?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-AKHOUSE26-R
Who will win the Alaska State House?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-AKHOUSE26-D
Who will win the Maine State Senate?: Democratic party
KXSTATELEG-MESEN26-D
Who will win the Maine State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-MESEN26-R
Analysis
The 86% probability reflects traders' assessment that Republicans will win control of the Michigan State House in the next election. This price suggests a decisive Republican advantage in the state's legislative races, though it remains contingent on turnout patterns, district-level dynamics, and any major political shifts before voting occurs. Key factors include the composition of competitive districts, whether state-level momentum favors Republicans or Democrats, and how well each party mobilizes voters in suburban and rural areas. The election result will be determined on the scheduled election day, at which point all uncertainty resolves. Current volatility in related state legislative markets indicates traders view this outcome as probable but not certain.
- ›Michigan State House district composition and historical Republican performance in competitive seats
- ›Turnout patterns in suburban districts, which have shifted politically in recent cycles
- ›State-level political momentum and approval ratings of incumbent leadership heading into the election
- ›Campaign spending and resource allocation by both parties in targeted districts
- ›Alignment of Michigan results with broader regional Republican or Democratic performance in other state legislatures
What moved the line
- Jun 22Republican party↓8pp24→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Republican party↑8pp83→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Democratic party↑7pp73→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Democratic party↓7pp14→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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