Vinicius Junior in the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Vinicius Junior is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Vinicius Junior
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Harry Kane 36¢
Range
1¢-36¢
Family volume
$12K
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN
Jun 21, 2026, 7:53 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$94
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$12K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Vinicius Junior wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN
Event family
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Harry Kane 36¢
Current share
1%
Harry Kane
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-HKAN
Ousmane Dembele
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-ODEM
Lionel Messi
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LMES
Michael Olise
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-MOLI
Erling Haaland
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-EHAA
Kylian Mbappe
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-KMBA
Lamine Yamal
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-LYAM
Vitinha
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VITI
Declan Rice
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-DRIC
Cristiano Ronaldo
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-CRON
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-KKVA
Vinicius Junior
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-VJUN
Jude Bellingham
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-JBEL
Desire Doue
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-DDOU
Bradley Barcola
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BBAR
Bruno Fernandes
kalshi · KXBALLONDOR-26-BFER
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
sports
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.