Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%
Leader sits at 76% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.05%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
Above 4.15%
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$19
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
7 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%?: Above 4.25%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.25
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%?: Above 4.20%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.20
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.15%?: Above 4.15%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.15
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.10%?: Above 4.10%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.10
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.05%?: Above 4.05%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.05
Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.00%?: Above 4.00%
KXUSTM-26JUN30-T4.00
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 75% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.00% at month-end June 2026, with progressively lower odds for higher yield thresholds. The 2-year yield reflects market expectations about near-term Federal Reserve policy and short-term inflation dynamics. Current pricing suggests traders believe rates are more likely to stay elevated than fall materially, though the sharp drop-off at higher levels (15% probability above 4.15%) indicates significant uncertainty about sustained upside moves. The key drivers are inflation data, Fed communications, and labor market conditions over the next 16 days. Month-end positioning and Treasury supply dynamics could also influence yield levels as the resolution date approaches.
- ›Current 2Y yield is tracking relative to the 4.00% threshold; any CPI or employment report before June 30 could shift market expectations directionally
- ›The contract structure shows 75% confidence in above-4.00% but only 6% confidence in above-4.20%, indicating a consensus narrow trading range rather than broad agreement on direction
- ›Volume across all contracts is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect overnight market moves
- ›Fed speakers, PCE inflation data (if released before month-end), or jobless claims would be the primary catalysts to resolve uncertainty in either direction
- ›The June 30 month-end settlement eliminates tail-risk scenarios; any major economic surprise must occur within the next two weeks to meaningfully reprice these contracts
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 4.15%↑50pp2→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.05%↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 4.05%↓32pp66→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.20%↑28pp7→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 4.05%↑27pp34→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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