30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end above 4.95%
Above 4.95% is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above.
Price history
29¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.95%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.95%
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
Above 5.30% 20¢
Range
1¢-20¢
Family volume
$998
Identifier
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T4.95
Jun 26, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$998
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end is above 4.95%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T4.95
Event family
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$998
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 5.30% 20¢
Current share
0%
Above 5.30%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.30
Above 4.95%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T4.95
Above 5.00%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.00
Above 5.10%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.10
Above 5.15%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.15
Above 5.05%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.05
Above 5.20%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.20
Above 5.25%
kalshi · KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.25
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.692
Observability
direct
Event type
financial
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 29% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.