Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%
Leader sits at 28% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.95%
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Above 5.30%
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$188
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
7 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.05%?: Above 5.05%
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.05
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%?: Above 4.95%
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T4.95
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.30%?: Above 5.30%
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.30
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXUST30M-26JUN30-T5.00
Analysis
Markets are pricing a two-in-three chance that the 30-year US Treasury yield will close June above 4.95%. This reflects uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and inflation dynamics over the coming weeks. The yield level matters because it signals market expectations for long-term borrowing costs, which affects mortgage rates, bond valuations, and investment decisions. Upward pressure would come from hotter-than-expected inflation data or Fed communication suggesting sustained higher rates; downward pressure would come from economic weakness or shifting Fed expectations toward rate cuts. The key catalyst will be inflation readings and any Fed communications before month-end, particularly June's CPI release and any policy guidance.
- ›Current 30Y Treasury yield relative to 4.95% strike—the yield's starting position on June 3 determines how much movement is needed in either direction
- ›Market expectations for the June CPI release and PCE deflator, scheduled mid-to-late June, which heavily influence Treasury pricing
- ›Fed communication or policy signals between now and June 30, including any FOMC decisions or chairman statements regarding rate hold or cut timing
- ›Spread between the 15-cent (5.30%) and 67-cent (4.95%) contracts suggests markets see higher probabilities of yields staying below 5.30% but meaningful uncertainty within the 4.95–5.30% range
- ›24-hour trading volume concentrated in the 5.00% contract ($332) relative to others, indicating active price discovery around the 5.00% level as a key pivot point
What moved the line
- Jun 20Above 4.95%↓41pp43→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 5.30%↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 5.00%↓17pp19→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 4.95%↑16pp2→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 5.05%↓14pp15→1¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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