Kenya · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Kenya is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 17¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
16¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Kenya is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Kenya
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 54¢
Range
5¢-54¢
Family volume
$261
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
Sep 6, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
17¢
Reported volume
$30K
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$261
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Kenya is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$261
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 54¢
Current share
0%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SUD
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SOMA
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-IND
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-BUR
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAR
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-RWA
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ETHI
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-DOC
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-USA
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ZAMB
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAN
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ANG
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CHI
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-NIGE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 16% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.