Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will a Trump family member the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 286% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Trump family nomination odds or substantial risk premium demanded by Yes backers given the 936-day time horizon and $7,361 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 286% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.3% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of Trump family nomination odds or substantial risk premium demanded by Yes backers given the 936-day time horizon and $7,361 open interest. The negligible 24-hour volume and 2¢ spread indicate very low liquidity, making this contract difficult to trade at scale despite the compelling yield differential. With a Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market faces meaningful binary event risk, and the 14¢ price may not fully reflect the political dynamics of a potential Trump family candidacy in 2028.
Resolution rules
If a member of the Donald J. Trump family (including him personally) is nominated as the 2028 Republican presidential candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPPRES-28 yes 100