SimpleFunctions

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas · KXWCADS-26JUL19

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXWCADS-26JUL19.

Price history

88¢ current

+3¢
80¢90¢
Jul 10, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Adidas aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas 88¢

Range

4¢-88¢

Family volume

$49K

Identifier

KXWCADS-26JUL19-ADID

Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 54m ago

Implied probability

88¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 54m ago

Bid

88¢

Ask

89¢

Spread

24h volume

$7K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCADS-26JUL19

Closes

Jul 19, 2027

Family volume

$49K

Orderbook snapshot

88 / 89¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
88¢198
87¢38
83¢100
82¢226
81¢333
AskSize
89¢1.0K
90¢1.0K
92¢131
93¢442
94¢166

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Adidas aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 19, 2027

Identifier

KXWCADS-26JUL19-ADID

SF Signal
SF Index
355.93
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCADS-26JUL19.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$49K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas 88¢

Current share

14%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ADID

88¢
$7K$7K0.0

Will Anthropic / Claude advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Anthropic / Claude

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ANTH

66¢
$5K$4K0.0

Will Nike advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Nike

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-NIKE

58¢
$2K$2K0.0

Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-DOOR

58¢
$2K$2K

Will Gemini advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Gemini

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEMI

51¢
$4K$4K0.0

Will Pepsi advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Pepsi

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-PEPS

50¢
$7K$2K0.0

Will Home Depot advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Home Depot

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-HOME

50¢
$4K$4K0.0

Will McDonald's advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: McDonald's

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-MCDO

45¢
$4K$4K

Will UberEats advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: UberEats

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-UBER

37¢
$6K$6K

Will Modelo advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Modelo

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-MODE

36¢
$2K$2K

Will Amazon advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Amazon

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-AMAZ

21¢
$1K$1K0.0

Will Celsius advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Celsius

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-CELS

17¢
$1K$1K0.1

Will Lego advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Lego

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-LEGO

13¢
$1K$752

Will SpaceX / Starlink advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: SpaceX / Starlink

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-SPAC

12¢
$1K$1K

Will Burger King advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Burger King

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-BURG

11¢
$1K$1K

Will Coinbase advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Coinbase

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-COIN

4¢
$2K$2K0.3

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

13.4%

IY (No)

720.1%

Adj IY

356%

CRI

7

Overround

7.8%

LAS

0.01

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

13.4%
720.1%
Adj IY
356%
7
Overround
7.8%
LAS
0.01

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.