SimpleFunctions

Will SpaceX / Starlink advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: SpaceX / Starlink · KXWCADS-26JUL19

Will SpaceX / Starlink advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: SpaceX / Starlink is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside KXWCADS-26JUL19.

Price history

13¢ current

+11¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 30, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If SpaceX / Starlink aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will SpaceX / Starlink advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: SpaceX / Starlink

Rank

#15 of 16

Leader

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas 94¢

Range

3¢-94¢

Family volume

$46K

Identifier

KXWCADS-26JUL19-SPAC

Jul 11, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 43m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 11, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 43m ago

Bid

13¢

Ask

14¢

Spread

24h volume

$2K

Family rank

#15 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCADS-26JUL19

Closes

Jul 19, 2027

Family volume

$46K

Orderbook snapshot

13 / 14¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
13¢151
12¢50
11¢103
10¢930
9¢100
AskSize
14¢644
15¢75
16¢265
17¢1.0K
19¢30

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If SpaceX / Starlink aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 19, 2027

Identifier

KXWCADS-26JUL19-SPAC

SF Signal
SF Index
655.51
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCADS-26JUL19.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$46K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas 94¢

Current share

4%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Will Adidas advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Adidas

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ADID

94¢
$6K$6K0.0

Will Anthropic / Claude advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Anthropic / Claude

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ANTH

62¢
$5K$4K

Will Home Depot advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Home Depot

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-HOME

61¢
$3K$3K0.0

Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-DOOR

58¢
$5K$5K0.0

Will Nike advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Nike

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-NIKE

56¢
$2K$1K0.0

Will McDonald's advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: McDonald's

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-MCDO

55¢
$3K$3K0.0

Will Pepsi advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Pepsi

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-PEPS

44¢
$3K$3K0.0

Will Gemini advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Gemini

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEMI

43¢
$2K$738

Will Toyota advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Toyota

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-TOYO

37¢
$2K$2K0.0

Will Modelo advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Modelo

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-MODE

29¢
$2K$2K0.0

Will UberEats advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: UberEats

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-UBER

27¢
$5K$1K0.1

Will Walmart advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Walmart

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-WALM

25¢
$1K$1K

Will Rocket Mortgage advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Rocket Mortgage

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ROCK

18¢
$1K$1K0.0

Will Samsung advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Samsung

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-SAMS

17¢
$2K$2K0.1

Will SpaceX / Starlink advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: SpaceX / Starlink

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-SPAC

13¢
$2K$2K

Will Temu advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Temu

kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-TEMU

3¢
$3K$3K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

655.5%

IY (No)

14.6%

Adj IY

656%

CRI

7

RV

1259%

VR

4.20

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

655.5%
14.6%
Adj IY
656%
7
RV
1259%
VR
4.20
IAR
0.3/h
Overround
8.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.