Alex Warren · KX1SONG-DEC2626
Alex Warren is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside KX1SONG-DEC2626.
Price history
21¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If Alex Warren has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alex Warren
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Drake 98¢
Range
2¢-98¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ALE
May 24, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
11¢
Reported volume
$746
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alex Warren has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
Identifier
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ALE
Event family
KX1SONG-DEC2626.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Drake 98¢
Current share
0%
Drake
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-DRA
Mariah Carey
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-MAR
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ARI
Beyoncé
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEY
Post Malone
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-POS
Morgan Wallen
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR
Don Toliver
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-DON
Justin Bieber
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-JUS
Tate McRae
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-TAT
Luke Combs
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-LUK
Dua Lipa
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-CUA
Alex Warren
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ALE
Chris Brown
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-CHR
21 Savage
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-21S
Addison Rae
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-ADD
2 Chainz
kalshi · KX1SONG-DEC2626-2CH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.