Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1231% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 27.5% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 87¢ price may be artificially inflated relative to fundamental probability. The 2¢ cross-venue gap (87¢ on Kalshi vs. 89¢ on Polymarket) is modest, but combined with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,262 open interest, liquidity is critically thin and the market appears illiquid enough that the high "No" yield may reflect pricing dysfunction rather than genuine opportunity. With 198 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market carries significant tail risk around the nomination timeline, making the extreme yield spreads potentially misleading for traders.

Resolution rules

If Alexander Vindman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class III (special election) Florida Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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