Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 91% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
91%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
115 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida?: Alexander Vindman
KXSENATEFLD-26-AVIN
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Angie Nixon becomes the Democratic Party's official Senate nominee for Florida's 2026 election. At 33%, the market suggests she is considered a serious contender but faces stronger competition, particularly from Jared Moskowitz, whose contract trades significantly lower at 3 cents. The probability reflects uncertainty about which candidate will accumulate sufficient delegate support or win primary contests. Factors influencing this level include Nixon's name recognition within Democratic circles, her fundraising capacity compared to rivals, and endorsements from party leadership. The primary election date and any scheduled candidate debates or endorsement announcements would likely move this probability meaningfully. Contract volume remains modest across all three candidates, indicating limited trading activity and potential for significant repricing as the nomination process advances and more information emerges about candidate viability and voter preferences.
- ›Nixon's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared Democratic candidates
- ›Endorsements from Florida Democratic Party officials, unions, and national party figures
- ›Vote share in any early primary elections or straw polls held before the official nomination vote
- ›Moskowitz's contract pricing at 3 cents suggests market assigns him substantially higher nomination odds despite lower trading volume
- ›The date of the Florida Democratic primary election and formal nomination procedures that will determine which candidate receives the nomination
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 0d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 0d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 0d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 0d
- Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Coloradolast 97% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.