Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market prices an extraordinarily unlikely scenario at 8¢, generating a 518% implied yield on the Yes side—an extreme risk premium reflecting the dual requirement that both AOC and Vance win their respective primaries against heavily favored alternatives.
Analysis
This market prices an extraordinarily unlikely scenario at 8¢, generating a 518% implied yield on the Yes side—an extreme risk premium reflecting the dual requirement that both AOC and Vance win their respective primaries against heavily favored alternatives. With only $3,804 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is thin, making this more of a novelty bet than a serious prediction vehicle. The price has remained flat at 7¢ over seven days despite 935 days to expiration, suggesting minimal market conviction or activity around this outcome.
Resolution rules
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCJVAN yes 100