Will Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing the outcome at 10¢ versus Polymarket's 22¢—a 120% spread suggesting either mispricing or liquidity constraints on the lower-priced venue.
Analysis
This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Kalshi pricing the outcome at 10¢ versus Polymarket's 22¢—a 120% spread suggesting either mispricing or liquidity constraints on the lower-priced venue. The 351.2% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme long-shot nature of this specific pairing, though the high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates substantial tail risk and potential for sharp repricing as we approach the 2028 conventions. With only $5,691 in open interest and a recent decline from 11¢ to 10¢ over seven days, liquidity is thin, making the spread particularly meaningful for any meaningful position size.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom (D) and Marco Rubio (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB yes 100