Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 14 inside KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07.
Price history
15¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Gavin Newsom (D) and Marco Rubio (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
Rank
#1 of 14
Leader
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio 14¢
Range
1¢-14¢
Family volume
$25
Identifier
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB
Jun 23, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$13
Family rank
#1 of 14
14 outcomes · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$25
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Gavin Newsom (D) and Marco Rubio (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB
Event family
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio 14¢
Current share
50%
Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWJVAN
Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-KHARJVAN
AOC v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCJVAN
AOC v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCMRUB
Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JOSSJVAN
Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JOSSMRUB
Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-KHARMRUB
Andy Beshear v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-ABESJVAN
Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JSHAJVAN
Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-PBUTJVAN
Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-PBUTMRUB
Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-ABESMRUB
James Talarico v. JD Vance
kalshi · KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JTALJVAN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 15% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.