Alfred Cannan · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24
Alfred Cannan is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24.
Price history
30¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Alfred Cannan becomes Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alfred Cannan
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
Alfred Cannan 31¢
Range
1¢-31¢
Family volume
$2
Identifier
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-ACAN
Sep 22, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24
Closes
Sep 24, 2027
Family volume
$2
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alfred Cannan becomes Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 24, 2027
Identifier
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-ACAN
Event family
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Alfred Cannan 31¢
Current share
100%
Alfred Cannan
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-ACAN
Chris Thomas
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CTHO
Jane Poole-Wilson
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JPOO
Rob Callister
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-RCAL
Lawrie Hooper
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-LHOO
Tim Johnston
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-TJOH
David Ashford
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-DASH
Claire Christian
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CCHR
Joney Faragher
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JFAR
Clare Barber
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CBAR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.