Jane Poole-Wilson · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24
Jane Poole-Wilson is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24.
Price history
10¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If Jane Poole-Wilson becomes Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jane Poole-Wilson
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
Alfred Cannan 42¢
Range
3¢-42¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JPOO
Aug 7, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$196
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24
Closes
Sep 24, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jane Poole-Wilson becomes Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 24, 2027
Identifier
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JPOO
Event family
KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Alfred Cannan 42¢
Current share
14%
Alfred Cannan
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-ACAN
Jane Poole-Wilson
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JPOO
Lawrie Hooper
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-LHOO
Chris Thomas
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CTHO
Rob Callister
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-RCAL
David Ashford
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-DASH
Joney Faragher
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-JFAR
Claire Christian
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CCHR
Clare Barber
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-CBAR
Tim Johnston
kalshi · KXISLEMINISTER-26SEP24-TJOH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.