Will Alfred Cannan become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23
9 contracts
Closes
Sep 24, 2027
365 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alfred Cannan become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 2
Will Jane Poole-Wilson become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 3
Will Clare Barber become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 4
Will Claire Christian become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 5
Will Chris Thomas become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 6
Will David Ashford become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 7
Will Joney Faragher become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 8
Will Lawrie Hooper become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Cluster 9
Will Tim Johnston become Chief Minister of Isle of Man following the 2026 Manx general election
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Alfred Cannan will serve as Chief Minister of Isle of Man after the 2026 general election. At 14%, Cannan ranks among the leading candidates but faces significant competition, with multiple rivals holding comparable or higher probabilities (Jane Poole-Wilson at 13%, Lawrie Hooper at 12%). The outcome depends on election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, as Isle of Man uses a proportional representation system where no single party typically secures an outright majority. The general election itself—scheduled for September 2026—will be the primary event determining who becomes Chief Minister, though post-election negotiations between parties could extend the timeline for a final decision.
- ›Alfred Cannan's current polling position and electoral track record relative to other named candidates in the Isle of Man political landscape
- ›The electoral system and coalition dynamics: whether any party can achieve a working majority or if confidence-and-supply arrangements will be necessary
- ›Cannan's party affiliation and the broader performance of his party in the 2026 election compared to competing parties whose candidates are also under consideration
- ›The timing and results of the September 2026 general election, which will determine the composition of the House of Keys and available coalition partners
- ›Historical precedent for how Chief Minister selection has proceeded following previous Manx general elections when no clear majority emerged
What moved the line
- Sep 17Chris Thomas↓10pp20→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Chris Thomas↑10pp10→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Alfred Cannan↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Alfred Cannan↑3pp29→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Alfred Cannan↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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