Alycia Gruenhagen · KXSENATEMNR-26
Alycia Gruenhagen is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside KXSENATEMNR-26.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If Alycia Gruenhagen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alycia Gruenhagen
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
Michele Tafoya 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXSENATEMNR-26-AGRU
Jun 25, 2026, 12:22 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$221
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · KXSENATEMNR-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Alycia Gruenhagen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATEMNR-26-AGRU
Event family
KXSENATEMNR-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Michele Tafoya 90¢
Current share
0%
Michele Tafoya
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-MTAF
Mark York
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-MYOR
Alycia Gruenhagen
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-AGRU
David Hann
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-DHAN
Adam Schwarze
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-ASCH
Tom Weiler
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-TWEI
Royce White
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-RWHI
Julia Coleman
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-JCOL
Kristin Robbins
kalshi · KXSENATEMNR-26-KROB
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.