Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Tafoya as a heavy favorite at 82¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $9,231 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price—liquidity is thin enough that the 4¢ spread may not reflect true market depth.
Analysis
The market is pricing Tafoya as a heavy favorite at 82¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $9,231 open interest suggest minimal conviction behind this price—liquidity is thin enough that the 4¢ spread may not reflect true market depth. The extreme 728% implied yield on the "No" side is a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced, as such asymmetric yields typically signal either very low probability tail risk or insufficient trading activity to establish equilibrium. With 201 days to the November 2026 close and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this appears to be a speculative position with limited real-money backing rather than a consensus forecast.
Also on polymarket at 79¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
If Michele Tafoya wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMNR-26-MTAF yes 100