Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee
Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
13¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$637
Identifier
0x9f042d68...467b
Aug 9, 2026, 8:48 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$637
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 19, 2029
Family volume
$637
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 19, 2029
Identifier
0x9f042d68…467b
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$637
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee 13¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.