Anna Golladay · KXTNPRIMARY-03D26
Anna Golladay is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXTNPRIMARY-03D26.
Price history
81¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If Anna Golladay wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TN-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Anna Golladay
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Anna Golladay 75¢
Range
19¢-75¢
Family volume
$12
Identifier
KXTNPRIMARY-03D26-AGOL
Jul 13, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$12
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXTNPRIMARY-03D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$12
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anna Golladay wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 TN-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTNPRIMARY-03D26-AGOL
Event family
KXTNPRIMARY-03D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$12
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Anna Golladay 75¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.