Will Van Hilleary be the Republican nominee for TN-06
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 66% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
66%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
13 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
478 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic nominee for TN-09
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic nominee for TN-09?: Justin Pearson
KXTNPRIMARY-09D26-JPEA
Cluster 2
Will Brent Taylor be the Republican nominee for TN-09
Will Brent Taylor be the Republican nominee for TN-09?: Brent Taylor
KXTNPRIMARY-09R26-BTAY
Cluster 3
Will Heidi Kuhn be the Democratic nominee for TN-08
Will Heidi Kuhn be the Democratic nominee for TN-08?: Heidi Kuhn
KXTNPRIMARY-08D26-HKUH
Cluster 4
Will Anna Golladay be the Democratic nominee for TN-03
Will Anna Golladay be the Democratic nominee for TN-03?: Anna Golladay
KXTNPRIMARY-03D26-AGOL
Cluster 5
Will Todd Warner be the Republican nominee for TN-09
Will Todd Warner be the Republican nominee for TN-09?: Todd Warner
KXTNPRIMARY-09R26-TWAR
Cluster 6
Will Mike Cortese be the Democratic nominee for TN-04
Will Mike Cortese be the Democratic nominee for TN-04?: Mike Cortese
KXTNPRIMARY-04D26-MCOR
Cluster 7
Will Johnny Garrett be the Republican nominee for TN-06
Will Johnny Garrett be the Republican nominee for TN-06?: Johnny Garrett
KXTNPRIMARY-06R26-JGAR
Cluster 8
Will Andy Ogles be the Republican nominee for TN-05
Will Andy Ogles be the Republican nominee for TN-05?: Andy Ogles
KXTNPRIMARY-05R26-AOGL
Cluster 9
Will Scott DesJarlais be the Republican nominee for TN-04
Will Scott DesJarlais be the Republican nominee for TN-04?: Scott DesJarlais
KXTNPRIMARY-04R26-SDES
Cluster 10
Will Lore Bergman be the Democratic nominee for TN-06
Will Lore Bergman be the Democratic nominee for TN-06?: Lore Bergman
KXTNPRIMARY-06D26-LBER
Cluster 11
Will Leonard Perkins be the Democratic nominee for TN-08
Will Leonard Perkins be the Democratic nominee for TN-08?: Leonard Perkins
KXTNPRIMARY-08D26-LPER
Cluster 12
Will Matt Van Epps be the Republican nominee for TN-07
Will Matt Van Epps be the Republican nominee for TN-07?: Matt Van Epps
KXTNPRIMARY-07R26-MEPP
Cluster 13
Will Darden Copeland be the Democratic nominee for TN-07
Will Darden Copeland be the Democratic nominee for TN-07?: Darden Copeland
KXTNPRIMARY-07D26-DCOP
Analysis
This contract represents the likelihood that Van Hilleary will secure the Republican nomination for Tennessee's 6th congressional district. At 27%, the market is pricing Hilleary as a significant contender but not the front-runner, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. The nomination probability reflects factors such as candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsement patterns, and primary field strength. The market's assessment would likely shift based on polling data from the district, campaign finance reports showing spending and donor support, and any major endorsements or candidate exits that reshape the competitive landscape. The primary election date and any preceding debates or campaign events would serve as key catalysts that could materially move this probability as voters get closer to their final decisions.
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to other Republican primary competitors in TN-06
- ›Primary election date and timing of early voting, debates, or other campaign events that crystallize voter preferences
- ›Polling data or internal surveys showing Hilleary's standing among likely Republican primary voters in the district
- ›Endorsements from significant party figures, elected officials, or organizational groups in Tennessee
- ›Number of competing Republican candidates in the primary and their respective campaign viability
What moved the line
- Jul 6Brent Taylor↑21pp29→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Todd Warner↓18pp30→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Todd Warner↑17pp16→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Brent Taylor↑14pp50→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Brent Taylor↓11pp78→67¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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