Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside Will Anthropic release Mythos before.
Price history
8¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Before Dec 1, 2026 15¢
Range
2¢-15¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Aug 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$57
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Event family
Will Anthropic release Mythos before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Dec 1, 2026 15¢
Current share
4%
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26SEP01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.