Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will Anthropic release Mythos before.
Price history
13¢ current
−42¢Contract brief
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 17¢
Range
1¢-17¢
Family volume
$848
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Jun 25, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$123K
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Anthropic release Mythos before
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$848
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Event family
Will Anthropic release Mythos before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$848
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 17¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26SEP01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26AUG01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26JUL01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.