Before Jul 24, 2026 · Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before
Before Jul 24, 2026 is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before.
Price history
38¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jul 24, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before Aug 14, 2026 88¢
Range
2¢-88¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26JUL24
Jul 21, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic releases Claude Opus refers to any Anthropic model officially named "Opus" (e.g., Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5). before Jul 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 24, 2026
Identifier
KXCLAUDE-OPUS-26JUL24
Event family
Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Aug 14, 2026 88¢
Current share
67%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.