SimpleFunctions

GitLab · Will any company announce acquisition

GitLab is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Will any company announce acquisition.

Price history

11¢ current

2¢
0¢10¢
Jul 15, 2026Aug 13, 2026

Contract brief

If any company announces an agreement to acquire GitLab before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

GitLab

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Spire Healthcare 55¢

Range

1¢-55¢

Family volume

$728

Identifier

KXACQANNOUNCEANNUAL-27JAN01-ANYGITL

Aug 13, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

11¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 13, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

17¢

Spread

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Will any company announce acquisition

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$728

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 17¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
100¢350
11¢5
10¢500
2¢637
AskSize
17¢35
18¢500
82¢1.7K
84¢47
99¢3.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any company announces an agreement to acquire GitLab before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXACQANNOUNCEANNUAL-27JAN01-ANYGITL

SF Signal
SF Index
2104.82
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2104.8%

IY (No)

32.2%

Adj IY

2105%

CRI

8

RV

17630%

VR

8.22

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

2104.8%
32.2%
Adj IY
2105%
8
RV
17630%
VR
8.22
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
2.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.