Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secret.... This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (3%) for any Cabinet member impeachment within 76 days, generating an extraordinary 15,611% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of deep illiquidity with only $34.6K open interest and a tight $1,090 daily volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (3%) for any Cabinet member impeachment within 76 days, generating an extraordinary 15,611% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of deep illiquidity with only $34.6K open interest and a tight $1,090 daily volume. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime suggest the market has settled at this depressed level without recent catalysts, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates meaningful tail risk that could rapidly reprrice if impeachment proceedings materialize.
Resolution rules
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIMPEACHCABINET-26JUL01 yes 100