Any member of the Cabinet (defined as
Before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 66¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 66¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before J.
Price history
66¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$343
Identifier
KXIMPEACHCABINET-29JAN20
Jun 24, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
66¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before J
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$343
Orderbook snapshot
66 / 73¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXIMPEACHCABINET-29JAN20
Event family
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before J.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$343
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 66¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 66% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.