Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secret.... This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 13¢ price reflects a 13% probability of Cabinet impeachment before year-end 2027, offering an asymmetric 941% implied yield on the Yes side despite 260 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($17.8k open interest).
Analysis
The 13¢ price reflects a 13% probability of Cabinet impeachment before year-end 2027, offering an asymmetric 941% implied yield on the Yes side despite 260 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($17.8k open interest). The extreme yield differential and elevated realized volatility (479%) suggest this is a tail-risk market where the low probability may be pricing in the rarity of Cabinet impeachments historically, though the 3¢ spread and modest 24-hour volume ($329) indicate limited conviction either direction.
Resolution rules
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIMPEACHCABINET-27JAN01 yes 100