Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029
Leader sits at 3% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Venezuela
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Cuba
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
943 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any part
Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?: Venezuela
KXSTATE51-29-VE
Will any part of Cuba be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?: Cuba
KXSTATE51-29-CU
Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?: Greenland
KXSTATE51-29-GL
Will Any part of Canada be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?: Canada
KXSTATE51-29-CA
Analysis
This contract asks whether any portion of Greenland becomes a U.S. state by January 20, 2029—roughly 2.7 years away. The 3% probability reflects that territorial annexation requires constitutional amendments or acquisitions that are extraordinarily rare in modern U.S. history and face substantial legal, diplomatic, and political barriers. The probability is driven primarily by recent geopolitical rhetoric around Arctic resources and strategic positioning, balanced against the extremely high institutional friction required to admit new territory as a state. The main catalyst would be a formal acquisition agreement between U.S. and Greenlandic/Danish authorities, coupled with congressional action—neither of which has materialized despite elevated discussion. Absent dramatic political shifts or military circumstances, the timeframe remains too compressed for such extraordinary constitutional changes to occur.
- ›No formal acquisition proposal, treaty, or negotiation framework exists as of mid-2026
- ›Denmark retains sovereignty over Greenland and has publicly opposed any territorial transfer
- ›Admitting a new state requires a constitutional amendment or treaty ratification, both extremely time-consuming political processes
- ›The January 2029 deadline is only ~2.7 years away, providing minimal window for legal and diplomatic procedures
- ›Historical precedent: the last U.S. state admission was Hawaii in 1959; territorial acquisition at this scale has no modern precedent
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 3d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 4d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 4d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 4d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.