Before Nov 4 · Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before
Before Nov 4 is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before.
Price history
34¢ current
−20¢Contract brief
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 4
Rank
#7 of 8
Leader
Before Jan 1 94¢
Range
12¢-94¢
Family volume
$656
Identifier
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0412A
Aug 23, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 54m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$507
Family rank
#7 of 8
8 outcomes · Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Family volume
$656
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 4, 2026
Identifier
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0412A
Event family
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$656
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Before Jan 1 94¢
Current share
77%
Before Jan 1
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-JAN0112A
Before Nov 14
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1412A
Before Nov 11
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A
Before Nov 6
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A
Before 4AM Nov 4
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV044A
Before 1AM Nov 4
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV041A
Before Nov 4
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0412A
Before 11PM Nov 3
kalshi · KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0311P
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.