Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Before Nov 14
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$450
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?: Before Nov 4
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0412A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?: Before 4AM Nov 4
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV044A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?: Before Nov 14
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1412A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?: Before 1AM Nov 4
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV041A
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026?: Before 11PM Nov 3
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0311P
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1
KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-JAN0112A
Analysis
This probability reflects trader expectations that the Associated Press will call a House majority winner before midnight ET on November 4, 2026—roughly one day after election day. The high probability (97%) suggests confidence that major news organizations will declare a winner quickly, as has been typical in recent cycles when one party gains a decisive advantage. Two factors drive this assessment: historical precedent (the AP called the 2022 House majority within hours of polls closing) and current polling showing potential blowouts in either direction, which would accelerate a call. However, a closely divided chamber would delay the call, potentially past Nov 4. The specific catalyst is election night itself on November 3-4, when sufficient races will be decided to determine which party controls the chamber. Traders are pricing in roughly a 40% chance the call comes before Nov 4 midnight specifically, versus higher odds it arrives by early November 6.
- ›Historical AP behavior: 2022 House majority was called within 24-48 hours; 2020 took four days due to closer margins
- ›Current polling aggregates and generic ballot trends suggest either a significant Republican or Democratic advantage, which would enable quicker AP confidence in a call
- ›The tiered contract structure (57% before Nov 4, 87% before Nov 6) shows traders expect most of the remaining uncertainty to resolve within a ~48-hour window after polls close
- ›AP call timing depends on outstanding races and margin thresholds, not on official results; uncertainty remains around which races stay too close to project
- ›Zero volume on top contracts in past 24 hours indicates this is priced but not actively traded, suggesting limited recent information flow
What moved the line
- Aug 23Before Nov 6↑60pp23→83¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Before 1AM Nov 4↓47pp68→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Before Nov 11↓47pp92→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Before Nov 11↑40pp45→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Before 4AM Nov 4↑33pp43→76¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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