Outright Winner · Will Argentina
Outright Winner is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will Argentina.
Price history
19¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Argentina wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Outright Winner
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Semifinals 54¢
Range
18¢-54¢
Family volume
$67K
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ARG-FW
Jul 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 34m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$19K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will Argentina
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Family volume
$67K
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Argentina wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ARG-FW
Event family
Will Argentina.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$67K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Semifinals 54¢
Current share
29%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.