Will USA get eliminated in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the USA will be eliminated in the Round of 32 (knockout stage) of the 2026 World Cup rather than earlier or later. The 33% probability suggests traders see meaningful risk of early elimination, though group stage exit trades much lower at 9%. The USA's performance depends on group composition, which will be determined by the draw, combined with squad depth and form heading into the tournament. The primary catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the official group stage draw, currently scheduled before tournament play begins in June 2026. Current market pricing also reflects historical precedent: the USA has advanced past group stages in recent tournaments (2014, 2018, 2022), which may anchor expectations toward advancing but facing tougher competition in knockout rounds.

• ›Group stage draw composition determines strength of opposition; unseeded teams face variable difficulty based on pot assignments
• ›USA squad strength and player fitness entering June 2026, including injury status of key Premier League and top-division players
• ›Historical advancement rate: USA has cleared group stage in three consecutive World Cups (2014–2022), establishing baseline expectations
• ›Relative pricing across elimination stages (9% group stage vs. 33% Round of 32) suggests market confidence in group survival but uncertainty about knockout performance
• ›Host nation Mexico's inclusion in same tournament may affect regional dynamics and competition intensity in group stage matchups

What moved the line

• Jun 25Group Stage↑36pp19→55¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 22Round of 32↑19pp33→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Group Stage↑14pp18→32¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Round of 32↑14pp31→45¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Round of 32↓14pp44→30¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds