Will USA get eliminated in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 34% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Round of 32
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Round of 16
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$30
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
79 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will USA get eliminated in
Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26USA-R32
Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 16
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26USA-R16
Will USA get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26USA-QF
Will USA get eliminated in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26USA-GS
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the USA will be eliminated in the Round of 32 (knockout stage) of the 2026 World Cup rather than earlier or later. The 33% probability suggests traders see meaningful risk of early elimination, though group stage exit trades much lower at 9%. The USA's performance depends on group composition, which will be determined by the draw, combined with squad depth and form heading into the tournament. The primary catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the official group stage draw, currently scheduled before tournament play begins in June 2026. Current market pricing also reflects historical precedent: the USA has advanced past group stages in recent tournaments (2014, 2018, 2022), which may anchor expectations toward advancing but facing tougher competition in knockout rounds.
- ›Group stage draw composition determines strength of opposition; unseeded teams face variable difficulty based on pot assignments
- ›USA squad strength and player fitness entering June 2026, including injury status of key Premier League and top-division players
- ›Historical advancement rate: USA has cleared group stage in three consecutive World Cups (2014–2022), establishing baseline expectations
- ›Relative pricing across elimination stages (9% group stage vs. 33% Round of 32) suggests market confidence in group survival but uncertainty about knockout performance
- ›Host nation Mexico's inclusion in same tournament may affect regional dynamics and competition intensity in group stage matchups
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.