Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026 is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
22¢ current
−31¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
0xd5d09b7a...56a2
Jun 26, 2026, 2:39 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$190
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Designated Contract Market (DCM) self-certifies sports-related event-based contracts with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information released by the CFTC or the respective DCM; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0xd5d09b7a…56a2
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026 22¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 22% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.