Will at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota?

This market is pricing in a highly pessimistic scenario where at least 5 of 6 Democratic primary candidates succeed, with Yes trading at just 24¢ despite 198 days to resolution. The 582.6% implied yield on Yes reflects extreme underpricing relative to the baseline probability that most incumbent or well-positioned Democrats win their primaries, suggesting the market may be overweighting the difficulty of these specific candidates or suffering from low liquidity (only $223.28 in 24h volume against $20.8k open interest). The sharp 5-cent decline over seven days (from 29¢ to 24¢) combined with a tight 3¢ spread and neutral regime score indicates this is a thinly-traded, sentiment-driven market where a modest shift in candidate viability could trigger significant repricing.

Resolution rules

If at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, then the market resolves to Yes.

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