Will Iga Swiatek win the WTA Madrid Open
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
8 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
499 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Cluster 3
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Republican party
SENATEMI-26-R
Cluster 4
Will at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota
Cluster 5
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: Republican party
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: Republican party
GOVPARTYMI-26-R
Cluster 6
Will Western Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
Analysis
This market estimates a 23% chance that Iga Swiatek wins the 2026 WTA Madrid Open, based on aggregated pricing across eight contracts on Kalshi. Swiatek is a former world number one and proven clay-court specialist, but the probability reflects significant competition in WTA tournaments. The price would likely shift based on her recent match performance, injury status, and the announced field of competitors. The Madrid Open typically occurs in May, so resolution depends on the tournament's outcome once it takes place. Key variables affecting the probability include Swiatek's current ranking and form heading into the event, whether top-ranked competitors participate, and how odds adjust as the tournament approaches and draw details emerge.
- ›Swiatek's ranking and recent match results in the months preceding Madrid, particularly performance on clay courts
- ›Participation status and seeding of other top-ranked WTA players, particularly those strong on clay
- ›Any injury updates or scheduling decisions from Swiatek that would affect tournament entry
- ›Historical performance data: Swiatek's win rate at Madrid and in WTA 1000 events over recent seasons
- ›Real-time odds movement as tournament approaches and draw becomes official, indicating how professional bettors reassess her chances
What moved the line
- Jun 18Yes↓5pp45→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Western Michigan↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Republican party↓3pp30→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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