Will Iga Swiatek win the WTA Madrid Open
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16K
16 contracts
Top contract
12¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Cluster 3
Will America win the Liga MX Clausura
Will America win the Liga MX Clausura?: America
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-AME
Cluster 4
Will Iga Swiatek win the French Open
Will Iga Swiatek win the French Open?: Iga Swiatek
KXFOWOMEN-26-SWI
Cluster 5
Will Atlas win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Atlas win the Liga MX Clausura?: Atlas
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-ATL
Cluster 6
Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Pumas UNAM win the Liga MX Clausura?: Pumas UNAM
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-PUM
Cluster 7
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Cruz Azul win the Liga MX Clausura?: Cruz Azul
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-CRA
Cluster 8
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Republican party
SENATEMI-26-R
Cluster 9
Will Toluca win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Toluca win the Liga MX Clausura?: Toluca
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-TOL
Cluster 10
Will Tigres win the Liga MX Clausura
Will Tigres win the Liga MX Clausura?: Tigres
KXLIGAMX-26CLA-TIG
Cluster 11
Will at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota
Cluster 12
Will the Mike Duggan party win the governorship in Michigan: Mike Duggan
Will the Mike Duggan party win the governorship in Michigan: Mike Duggan
GOVPARTYMI-26-MD
Cluster 13
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: Republican party
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: Republican party
GOVPARTYMI-26-R
Cluster 14
Will Western Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship
What moved the line
- May 3Pumas UNAM↓11pp20→9¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Toluca↑11pp5→16¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Cruz Azul↓10pp20→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2America↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Tigres↑8pp6→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.