Will Baltimore win at least 95 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will Baltimore win at least 95 games this season?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The market is pricing Baltimore at just 16¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1601% on the Yes side, suggesting extreme underpricing or severe liquidity constraints—the $0 24-hour volume and $1,021 open interest indicate this is a ghost market with minimal trading activity.
Analysis
The market is pricing Baltimore at just 16¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1601% on the Yes side, suggesting extreme underpricing or severe liquidity constraints—the $0 24-hour volume and $1,021 open interest indicate this is a ghost market with minimal trading activity. The 12¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the realized volatility of 2876% combined with a cliff risk index of 9 signals this contract exhibits highly erratic behavior with potential for sharp repricing. With 205 days to expiry and Baltimore needing 95+ wins (roughly a .586 win percentage), the 16¢ price seems disconnected from historical MLB performance; for context, this would require one of the league's better seasons, making the low probability suspect given the long time horizon for team performance to crystallize.
Resolution rules
If Baltimore has 95+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-BAL-26-T95 yes 100